Dinesh Singh

Dinesh Singh
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Thursday, 11 July 2013

Will Rupee Depreciation Bring NRI Real Estate Investors Home?

Dubai, touted to be the most popular destination and world class investment to be in the Middle East began to attend. A recovery in the property market after the financial crisis In 2012, real estate prices recovered for the first time, up 10% y / y, depending on the growth of Dubailand (DLD) authorities and refers to several regional media. Real estate transactions in Dubai rose by 8% to Dh154 million in 2012.

As expected, the recovery supported by massive investments by foreigners, particularly India. Non Resident Indians (NRIs) are easily among the five investors in the region. With their natural affinity for India and the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the dollar, real estate investment decisions NRI community is changing for the Indian market?


For the Indian real estate, the general perception among buyers / investors is that prices have risen significantly in recent years. ~ 40-42% on average in all major markets - immediately after the collapse of Lehman period, the Indian real estate prices rose significantly ( As per sources data- see table below) 




Even in cities like Mumbai, where the assets are already high, the yield is 66% over the same period. In this context, there is evidence DLD property prices in Dubai fell by 65% ​​in the four years before 2012, that the existence of a rally of 10% justifies in 2012, is actually the only thing that matters

More recently, the Indian rupee (INR) was 12.0% devaluation against the dollar since the beginning of May to June 2013, pushing down the value of all other currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar - including the United Arab Emirates Dirham (AED). As a result, the Indian rupee has also depreciated against the dollar by ~ 12.0% over the same period.

A return envelope calculation suggests that if an NRI based in Dubai invests AED 10 million in Indian real estate now (INR / AED 16.4), and assuming that the Conservatives property returns 15% in India in a short time would likely return the "investor back more than 27% under the assumption that the INR will return to the pre-14.8/AED can mean (see figure). 





Just add approximately 12.0% due to fluctuating exchange rates are comparable with the 10-12% expected DLD term investments in Dubai real return on total property. Similar performance can be expected additional investment of NRAs in other parts of the Middle East, where the local currency is mainly associated with the U.S. dollar (see Table 1). 


One could argue that the Indian expatriates are promoting Dubai in Indian real estate based on socio-economic and other. According to media sources, Indian investors buying property in Dubai, because it is a relative political stability, world class infrastructure, tax incentives, attractive prices and geographical proximity. Moreover took Dubai's economy over the past two years to complete, an increase of 4.4% and 3.4% in 2012 and 2011, respectively.

However, a recent study conducted by Sumansa Exhibitions, the organizers of the annual event called the success of the show in India UAE property a different picture. The survey shows that NRAs a higher intrinsic value of a property belonging to India or Dubai property can put elsewhere.
Aside from strict rules on visas in the Middle East, there are certain legal obstacles to buying real estate in the United Arab Emirates. Other important factors that can help to NRI interest in the Indian real estate market - of which:

The economic growth in India
Improving care infrastructure and policies concerning the conditions of new infrastructure initiatives
The growing demand for commercial space in the market (which leads to job creation)
Social infrastructure
The evolution of prices.
Putting these results in perspective, the recent decline in the Indian rupee act as the trigger for the NRI community to continue to focus on the property back in India. In the Middle East


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